European Firms Fear US Could Cut Off AI and Cloud Access—Yet Lack Escape Plans
Key Takeaways
- ▸Nearly three-quarters of European businesses (73.9%) fear the US government could cut off access to American tech platforms, exacerbated by recent export control directives on AI models
- ▸Over 50% of firms could operate for only one business day without cloud services; large businesses estimate potential costs exceeding €100,000 per day offline
- ▸Critical preparedness gap: only 44% have documented and regularly-tested business continuity plans despite acknowledging geopolitical risks
Summary
A survey of 1,500 European businesses reveals a stark disconnect between risk awareness and preparedness: 73.9% of firms in the UK, France, and Germany fear the US government could abruptly cut their access to American tech platforms, especially following recent export control directives targeting AI models like those from Anthropic. Yet only 44% have documented, regularly-tested business continuity plans in place. The concern is not theoretical—more than half of respondents said they could operate for no more than a single business day without cloud and digital services, with large businesses estimating potential losses exceeding €100,000 per day of downtime.
The survey, conducted by Proton (a Swiss privacy-focused company), underscores Europe's deep technological dependence on US vendors. Over 74% of all publicly listed European companies rely on US-based tech services, and American cloud providers control 85% of the European market. While geopolitical tensions with the Trump administration have intensified these fears, the vulnerability extends beyond AI to core infrastructure: Identity and Access Management systems—the layer responsible for authenticating every user—are almost entirely dominated by US vendors subject to American law.
Despite the risk, European businesses appear largely unprepared to escape. While 67.8% said they would switch providers if government action cut off access, the reality is far murkier: email and cloud file storage are identified as fallback priorities, but no comprehensive alternative ecosystem exists. Every surveyed respondent reported experiencing at least one significant disruption in the past 12 months—from outages and cyberattacks to service losses—yet most lack tested contingency plans.
- European cloud market remains dominated by US providers (85% market share), with no mature local alternatives for email, productivity tools, or identity management
- 67.8% of businesses say they would switch providers if access were cut, but lack proven alternatives or tested migration pathways
Editorial Opinion
The survey exposes a dangerous paradox in European business strategy: high awareness of systemic risk paired with minimal concrete preparation. This isn't just a compliance issue—it's a strategic vulnerability that invites either European digital sovereignty initiatives or continued dependence on US goodwill. The Anthropic export controls serve as a bellwether; what begins with AI models could expand to broader cloud and productivity services. European firms must move beyond surveys and boardroom discussions to actually test alternatives, even if imperfect, before a real 'kill switch' moment arrives.
